Sudbury Housing Inventory Projections for 2020 and beyond

This news story details some technical information regarding Sudbury’s attainment of the 10% affordable housing threshold. The 10% threshold is a parameter set by the Department of Housing and Community Development for 40B compliance.  Communities that have surpassed having 10% of their year-round housing stock designated as affordable (per the regulations promulgated at 760 CMR 56), are in a ‘safe harbor’ relative to subsequent comprehensive permit applications.

This is an estimate and projection for Sudbury’s Subsidized Housing Inventory (SHI) for 2020 with the current information available. Note that this is just an estimate as it projects the housing development in the town, which may vary from the assumptions used.

This analysis estimates that Sudbury will remain over the 10% threshold in 2020, surpassing the threshold by 5 affordable housing units and potentially staying in this ‘safe harbor’ to 2030. Additional affordable units increase the amount over the 10%; additional housing units reduce the amount over the 10%. Note that it would take 50 additional housing units to dip below 10%, in this analysis.

With the permit approval of Avalon in July, Sudbury has surpassed the 10% goal by 16 units. Sudbury currently has 10.27% on the State’s Subsidized Housing Inventory (SHI), with 608 affordable units (numerator) and 5,921 year round housing units (denominator).

The SHI percentage is calculated as the number of qualifying affordable housing units as the numerator and the total number of housing units as the denominator.

The numerator is adjusted as units are created. Projections for the numerator include:

  • 2 units from the Home Preservation Program by the Sudbury Housing Trust (FY19, FY20)
  • 56 units from phase 2 of the Coolidge (FY18)
  • No other units are included numerator; the analysis assumes that Sudbury Station is not eligible.

The denominator is updated with each decennial census. Projections for the denominator include:

  • 199 units provided by the Census as an interim update through 7/1/14.
  • Annual ‘organic’ growth of 30 units annually for FY15/FY16; 15 units annually for remaining years.
  • 56 units from Coolidge phase 2.
  • 250 units from Avalon.
  • 60 units from Meadow Walk (age-restricted condos)
  11/1/16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Affordable units (numerator) 608        
Coolidge     56    
Home Preservation       1 1
Numerator Total 608 608 664 665 666
Total Housing Units (denominator) 5921        
Interim Census report (through 6/30/14)   199      
Organic Growth (from 7/1/14)   75 15 15 15
Coolidge     56    
Avalon     250    
Meadow Walk         60
Denominator Total 5921 6195 6516 6531 6606
           
SHI% 10.27% 9.81% 10.19% 10.18% 10.08%
+/- 10% 16 -12 12 12 5.4

 

Please click here to see Sudbury’s Subsidized Housing Inventory List.

Please click here to see letter from DHCD about Avalon numbers being added to the SHI.

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